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I am sure that Italy would beg to differ.
What's happening in Italy is very sad. But it's also explainable:
They were late to have serious containment, and locking down the Northern region at 2 AM on Sunday caused 5 MM people to hurry South to spread the virus.
The weather in Italy is cold this time of the year. For every 18 degrees warmer the daily average temperature gets the R0 factor of COVID-19 decreases by 18%.
The population in Italy is old. Among the oldest populations in the developed world.
Most people who have died (99.2% have at least one related underlying health condition) The majority have 3 or more underlying conditions. The population, in general, is not healthy.
Even one extra death from a virus beyond what our society is accustom to is both scary and unfortunate. I have friends in Italy and I feel for them deeply and I wish them well.
Thus far 6077 people have died in Italy due to complications associated with COVID-19. That is absolutely horrible. To provide a sense of comparison or relativity see the following data:
Top 20 reasons of mortality in Italy as of a few years ago:
108,924
62,431
36,003
34,444
29,595
22,815
21,743
16,354
14,277
13,823
13,607
11,385
10,990
10,288
10,217
10,101
9,463
8,860
8,768
7,344
I understand where your coming from, but we don't need to add a #21, if we can avoid it, and we don't need these many old people dying. I think after a while people do forget. If a vaccine does come out next year who is going to get it if the crisis is over. Its kind of like the getting a flu shot, many people avoid it.
@jbiloh
Unfortunately, with the approximate death rate being about 45% (we'll assume it'll drop to 30% as things improve), the remaining ~50K cases will result in about another 15K deaths. That means it places around the 6-8th in terms of mortality compared to the other diseases you've listed.
And that's assuming death rates go down (which I hope it does!) -- but right now, almost 5000 cases are stacking each day. That means that the numbers I just stated are probably understated by a lot.
On the bright side, it seems that the number of new cases per day is slowing down, so let's hope they pull through this with as little casualties as possible, eh?
This video is cause by corona virus in Indonesia
https://m.facebook.com/andhika.y.pranata/posts/pcb.10215800404952627/?photo_id=10215800378351962&mds=/photos/viewer/?photoset_token=pcb.10215800404952627&photo=10215800378351962&profileid=1259582342&source=48&refid=52&ref=m_notif¬if_t=feed_comment&__tn__=EHH-R&cached_data=false&ftid=&mdp=1&mdf=1
invalid link?
Cloud is full, dang.
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/03/24/azure_seems_to_be_full/
I don't mean to downplay the effects of this virus, but you're misunderstanding the numbers in a catastrophically bad way. Where in the world is the death rate 45%?!?!?
Are you saying that all of these new cases are serious cases requiring hospitalization? Because the facts do not support this... And if the numbers are understated, as you suppose, wouldn't this mean the mortality rate is far lower?
That is indeed a bright spot. But please, have a closer look at the true numbers so you can see the situation from a more realistic perspective.
I think he is referring to death/(recovered+death) in Italy.
If you count death/infected, it would be closer to 8-10%
@aj_potc
Italy. My source for my numbers come from the Italian government: http://www.protezionecivile.gov.it/media-communication/press-release/detail/-/asset_publisher/default/content/coronavirus-sono-54-030-i-positivi
I apologize about any misrepresentions; I should rephrase: Of the ~14K people in Italy who have gone through the entire course of the virus, approximately 45% have died.
On the topic of me stating that they were understated, you correctly understood me about the number of new cases. This, however, does not affect the ratio of recovered patients vs. patients who passed away due to the virus, which was what my original calculation was based on.
Strictly speaking, if we compare the number of people who have died compared to the number of cases in total, the death rate is somewhere in the neighbourhood of 10%. If I use this number instead of 45% in my calculation, that means another 5000 people will die, leading for a total of about 11K deaths if no one else is infected apart from today. If we consider the daily rate though, by the time it is contained and stopped it may be in the region of 15-20K death -- a terrible thought to consider.
The death rate is Italy is absolutely higher than in other countries, but nowhere near 45% according to: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6. More like 10%, which is insanely high, but might have to do with the average age and other factors.
Global death rate seems to be around 4.5% based on reported cases. I think the actual death rate is considerably lower, as I figure more than half the people that get it never get tested/reported. In many countries they only test you when you are hospitalized, meaning you're part of the 20% that has more-than-mild symptoms already, which increases your chances of this (or the flu for that matter) being fatal.
There are two studies that were published a few weeks ago, one of of Beijing and another out of the UK that said between 80 and 82 percent of patients who contract covid 19 never get clinically diagnosed. That means that the real world mortality when taking those patients into account that never get tested, and who never need treatment at a hospital, is significantly lower than the levels being reported today that only compares clinically diagnosed vs. Those that pass.
It's akin to leaving a huge segment of the data out of consideration because you want to scare people into being more cautious. I understand the logic but the media has gone crazy and caused people to think the world is ending.
@jbiloh
Fair enough; a lot of fear mongering has been taking place in the media and a lot has been blown out of proportion.
However, there are examples of it not being taken seriously enough. In the US for example it was essentially ignored long enough to become an actual problem.
Weeks of Trump saying that "there's no problem, there won't be any cases by next week, etc" and then only recently did he admit that it was a problem (and falsely claiming that he had thought it was a problem for the 'longest while') is one example of this.
So really, I think there are two sides to the story -- some news outlets are blasting this as the end of the world/2012/etc, but others have unnecessarily downplayed it as another "cold" of sorts. In either case, while it isn't the end of the world, at the end of the day the virus will have damaged economies and it will definitely take some time to recover beyond the virus itself.
The only people saying that are leftists trying to make political hay out of tragedy.
@raindog308
It was not my intent to make political hay out of the virus. Plus, I'm not exactly a leftist considering who I voted for in the 2019 federal elections
What? That is bullshit. You can read numerous fuck ups by top government and not taking it seriously not just for last 3 months but last 3 years. Don't make excuses for malice and incompetence. There are leaders in this world and there are pieces of shit with power. The current US President is not a leader.
tl;dr
Nursing homes and senior citizens homes and concentrated areas like Florida and Arizona will have huge death tolls. Places with higher ratios of younger people will have very low death tolls.
My younger sister had childhood leukemia when she was 5 and stayed in a Children's hospital. These young have immunity compromised bodies that will feel a heavy toll as well.
It is mainly these people who we have direct and indirect contact with that we're really trying to make sure don't get infected.
You're probably right. That's a very strange way of interpreting the data.
Keep in mind that the statistics about recovered people are completely unreliable. How can governments possibly keep track of something like this -- especially areas under such a heavy load of serious cases? It's not like they have health agencies making regular phone calls to every person who tested positive, asking if they're doing okay.
It's entirely possible that the vast majority of reported cases in Italy and elsewhere are already recovered. We'll never know it, though. We just see these scary numbers rising and rising -- with absolutely no context whatsoever.
Where's the important information? For example, I want to know:
It would also be nice to put the mortality numbers into context. @jbiloh did a great job of this for Italy, but it would be nice to see it reported everywhere.
When we see that 700+ people died in country X in one day, it sounds very bad. But what's a normal number for a population of 60+ million?
I know this all sounds so heartless, but without knowing the full picture, it's hard to know how to react to the data that's being breathlessly reported to us daily.
Presumably through re-testing
We put in orders to stock up on bodybags today at work so our county would have more on hand - no deaths yet, but we're obviously expecting a fair amount
That is not so strange. That is the strictest way of thinking. We don't know who is going to be recovered.
The 8%-10% figure is less strict. Anyhow, this is a serious virus, treat it as such. Scaring people helps the quarantining efforts and slowing down the spread.
Realtime data https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
It's good to see international financial markets stabilizing. Hopefully we have a bottom. Now begins the long road to recovery.
It's a faulty way of thinking and patently misleading, and that's why I called it out.
Hogwash. This virus is scary enough as it is. We don't need bogus interpretations of imprecise statistics to drive that home. As has been stated all over the place by experts, the real mortality numbers are likely far less than 8-10%.
I'm tired of seeing ridiculous "analyses" by people who can't get their head around the numbers, much less perform simple math... Did so few people study statistics in school?
That's my last word on the subject. I'll leave you guys to your imaginary math.
senator sues china over corona for 20 trillion ..
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-lawyer-larry-klayman-sues-chinese-government-over-outbreak/
Lawyers are senators?
Well... the US is now the epicenter of the outbreak. That can't be good, especially since Canada is next door...
If I were you I would stop accusing and criticizing others, from today the USA is the state with the greatest number of infections, rather than accusing China and criticizing Italy you had better worry about managing the thing well since the numbers of infected are growing dramatically in the United States in the past few days. But you seem to be more interested in being here to explain what happens elsewhere.
Good luck collecting. What a waste of time.
The world has never seen a virus like COVID-19.
Take it seriously folks, for your own good. We are all seeing what happened to those who haven't taken it seriously.
A ~10% fatality rate is still 1 in 10 person being killed by the virus.
Can you imagine what could be the situation if 1 in 10 person dies in your community? The whole community will become a grave.
You will run out of graveyards, caskets and tears.
It's an envelope virus. COVID-19 has an extra hard protein shell that protects it. It takes 70 degree Celsius to kill the virus, or you need to boil it for 30 minutes at 56 degree Celsius to kill it.
It can survive up to 30 minutes in the air, and 5 to 30 days on surfaces (soil, metal, wood, food etc.)
It has 2,000 sub-species, and can adapt and change its genome structure and did so over 300 times since January.
I can go on. It's scary.
Scaring anyone is not my intention at all. What I have said is to state the facts.
Please, stay safe. Mankind has never faced an enemy like this.