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50-100% VPS price increases in 2012?
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50-100% VPS price increases in 2012?

kiloservekiloserve Member
edited November 2011 in Providers

With hard drive prices tripling and quadrupling, it seems to me that pricing for VPS servers will increase significantly in 2012.

In a world where virtually everything is seeing rising costs, webhosting and VPS hosting prices have continued to go down....until now.

Most providers I've seen use at least 4x hard drives...will they go down to 2x drives or start passing along the costs to the consumer?

Already it seems that the VPS offers are becoming more cautionary. I'm still seeing a few cheap mega disk space plans but I'm guessing they'll be going away next year.

We saw $10 and $15/year plans earlier but now it seems headed more towards $20/year and those will probably go to $25/$30 sometime next year.

It seems to me that this hard drive shortage has ended the trend of declining VPS prices and in 2012 we'll be seeing significantly higher pricing and/or less resources for the same amount of money.

We're still in the early days of the hard drive crunch as old stock is still in circulation but as existing inventory levels drop, we'll really feel the crunch.

Many are projecting that hard drive prices won't return to pre-flooding pricing until mid-2013 so we're in this for the long-haul.

Anybody have thoughts on how sky-rocketing hard drive prices will affect VPS hosting?

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Comments

  • I'm more concerned for the IPv4 shortage rather than hard drives.

    Thanked by 1drmike
  • Mon5t3rMon5t3r Member
    edited November 2011

    Yeah, i'm thinking that too. i'm still waiting for "acceptable" price for HDD before deploying our new node in our country. for $15/year only @Francisco can answer that :P but i'm sure i need recalculate my $36/year offer.

  • kiloservekiloserve Member
    edited November 2011

    @Boltersdriveer said: I'm more concerned for the IPv4 shortage rather than hard drives.

    We have not actually seen the IPv4 shortage for ourselves as our provider was allocated more than they will ever need.

    They might take 72 hours to do rDNS but they have ALOT of IP space.

  • Do VPS customers really need that much hard drive space? I never use more than what the OS needs + some small space for a website, database or gameserver.
    Anyway this might lead to some interesting SSD offers :D

  • 15K SAS2 all the way once again :)

  • cleonardcleonard Member
    edited November 2011

    I don't see how the disk drive prices can't have an effect. There are several questions as to exactly how it's going to play out in the longer term. The 2013 figure comes from some capital equipment that has long 14 month lead times. I've not surveyed the news on this subject for a few days but the question still remains as to exactly what the overall damage is.

    Can non-damaged facilities crank out more drives? They clearly have the incentive to do so. From what I saw a few days back the motor and some other parts supplies situation was looking a bit better than some of the earlier reports.

    There may well be other effects though. Perhaps memory prices will erode since there there will not be as many systems shipped compared to projections.

    I also agree that most people don't need all the space. Perhaps 5G of space for a $15/yr VPS instead of 10?

  • yomeroyomero Member
    edited November 2011

    The SSDs will be cheaper than the HDDs!!!!

    [conspiration mode]
    Is a marketing strategy by seagate, wd and that all companies to renew our disks u_u
    [/conspiration mode]

  • I doubt were going to see a massive hit, they can just move production elsewhere.

    Plus think about all the HDs we have around the house, around work etc not being used.

    Thanked by 1drmike
  • Go59954Go59954 Member
    edited November 2011

    Not sure how accurate the prediction will turn to be in the short term, since I've seen the same during early 2010, but about global LCD shortages effect on prices and that they shall keep increasing (well, LCD aren't required in VPS :X), but eventually the prices actually dropped!

  • Go59954Go59954 Member
    edited November 2011

    @gsrdgrdghd said: Do VPS customers really need that much hard drive space? I never use more than what the OS needs + some small space for a website, database or gameserver. Anyway this might lead to some interesting SSD offers :D

    I 've seen most LEB offers coming with 10-50 GB of space, while less than 10 GB is the uncommon. So obviously there's a good share of customers looking for space, as well.

    But I guess it's a joy for providers to hear such news, regardless ;)

  • @cleonard said: Can non-damaged facilities crank out more drives?

    Quick answer, no, they can not even put out what they were as 8 of 10 of the factories making the motors for HDD's were flooded as well. I am looking at used drives as a way to keep supply, as the price, while higher isn't so terrible since I've always been a tad higher in price, but supply is just not there to buy.

  • @miTgiB said: Quick answer, no, they can not even put out what they were as 8 of 10 of the factories making the motors for HDD's were flooded as well. I am looking at used drives as a way to keep supply, as the price, while higher isn't so terrible since I've always been a tad higher in price, but supply is just not there to buy.

    So the case is true this time :)

  • Nidec the manufacturer of the motors that are inside most of the drives made today has an update for today's facility status at http://www.nidec.co.jp/english/news/indexdata_e/2011/1114.pdf

    No percentage of production or anything like that, but it does give some idea of what is going on.

  • IP + HDD costs make things hellish starting out now :/.

  • Sounds like a couple of hosts might be in a bit of a bind then... once folks realize that we won't be raising our prices and making our clients eat the costs, they're going to start questioning the companies that do.

  • FranciscoFrancisco Member, Top Host, Host Rep

    @Kairus said: IP + HDD costs make things hellish starting out now :/.

    Given how full the market is I think it's stupid to do a start up now. The only 'big' startup that has come about recently was uptimeVPS and they botched things on the cheapest equipment you can find - period. No one is cheaper than OVH/hetzner for hardware and IP's and they still couldn't pull it off.

    Francisco

  • KuJoeKuJoe Member, Host Rep

    These are the days when overselling may start to hurt people. ;)

  • I don't think it's going to be a big problem. not for me at least - I got VPS and dediboxes to grow at least 3 times bigger and I'll still be comfortable.

  • @Francisco said: Given how full the market is I think it's stupid to do a start up now. The only 'big' startup that has come about recently was uptimeVPS and they botched things on the cheapest equipment you can find - period. No one is cheaper than OVH/hetzner for hardware and IP's and they still couldn't pull it off.

    Francisco

    Yeah, hosting is a rough industry right now.

  • FranciscoFrancisco Member, Top Host, Host Rep

    @Kairus said: Yeah, hosting is a rough industry right now.

    More and more 'buy outs' and 'mergers' are happening, especially when there's a company/firm on WHT advertising a 'buyout' service.

    Francisco

  • SSDNodesSSDNodes Member, Host Rep

    Unfortunately it doesn't look like prices will stabilize until Q1 2012.

    We saw the same thing with RAM shortages a few years ago, and that lasted for 2-3 years.

  • FranciscoFrancisco Member, Top Host, Host Rep

    Found it:

    http://www.weacquirehosts.com/

    These guys are advertising on WHT.

    Francisco

  • FranciscoFrancisco Member, Top Host, Host Rep

    @Mon5t3r said: Yeah, i'm thinking that too. i'm still waiting for "acceptable" price for HDD before deploying our new node in our country. for $15/year only @Francisco can answer that :P but i'm sure i need recalculate my $36/year offer.

    We're simply cutting back on how much we release. It isn't a thing that we don't have cash flow to buy, even at these huge prices, it's that it's a complete rip off. Since we give so much space we need, at minimum, 1.5TB drives. We use, at minimum, 100+ a build so i'm not OK dropping $20k on drives alone.

    Francisco

  • Rather surprised as purchasing additional drives only affects expansion. Current clients already have the hard drive space assigned to them.

  • KairusKairus Member
    edited November 2011

    http://www.webhostingtalk.com/showpost.php?p=7797470&postcount=4

    Apparently the 8GB UDIMMs are available for the E3-1200's for cheaper. That should be pretty interesting,

    I can't remember the last time that Intel released such great and well priced processors (both desktop and server).

    edit: Apparently they're $200/stick, which is better than $400, but not as good as the $80 that someone on that post said.

  • Still, bumping my idle nodes to 24gb from 16gb since I only have so much disk space to use anyway, $400 one time for 50% more I can sell on KVM nodes is very attractive. I have a few 8 disk nodes that I will bump to 32gb. New stock without buying drives is worth a lot right now. New stock without adding servers consuming power or rack space is worth a lot more over time.

  • @miTgiB No concerns over bandwidth? I'm guessing most VPS users don't use much bandwidth, so overselling b/w by 2-3x is no problem.

  • @Kairus said: No concerns over bandwidth?

    Does anyone other than end users have this concern? I mean really? I have a 1gbit port in LA, 15 nodes, and a 95th percentile usage of 80mbit or 25tb of transfers a month.

  • dmmcintyre3dmmcintyre3 Member
    edited November 2011

    @miTgiB

    [[email protected] ~]# wget http://cachefly.cachefly.net/10mb.test -O /dev/null
    --2011-11-14 22:26:08--  http://cachefly.cachefly.net/10mb.test
    Resolving cachefly.cachefly.net... 205.234.175.175
    Connecting to cachefly.cachefly.net|205.234.175.175|:80... connected.
    HTTP request sent, awaiting response... 200 OK
    Length: 10485760 (10M) [application/octet-stream]
    Saving to: “/dev/null”
    
    100%[======================================>] 10,485,760  1.55M/s   in 5.1s    
    
    2011-11-14 22:26:13 (1.97 MB/s) - “/dev/null” saved [10485760/10485760]
    
    [[email protected] ~]# wget 216.189.8.153/10mb.test -O /dev/null
    --2011-11-14 22:24:51--  http://216.189.8.153/10mb.test
    Connecting to 216.189.8.153:80... connected.
    HTTP request sent, awaiting response... 200 OK
    Length: 10485760 (10M) [application/octet-stream]
    Saving to: “/dev/null”
    
    100%[======================================>] 10,485,760   354K/s   in 33s
    
    2011-11-14 22:25:24 (308 KB/s) - “/dev/null” saved [10485760/10485760]    

    I'm concerned if I can't get even the max speed of my home connection. (3MB/s burstable, 1.5MB/s normal download speed)

  • SC is not a fair comparison to cachefly, SC is single homed and a 300mbit link, and you and I probably have a poor route between us, where cachefly is on every network and in different locations all over the country, but there is 50%+ available bandwidth in SC at anytime.

    Currently the Cogent port

      30 second input rate 169821000 bits/sec, 69655 packets/sec
      30 second output rate 142408000 bits/sec, 69378 packets/sec
    
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