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Hetzner Outage: Finland - Germany C-Lion cable is cut. (We all know who did it).
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Because there's nobody to accuse of, underwater cables are being cut by anchors left and right. EU is hyping up the obligatory "Russia China at our doorstep" panic, but it's all baseless. The story will end up with a simple "dropped anchor during storm", just as the previous one.
There was no storm in the previous one you dumbass. The ship dragged that anchor several tens of kilometers.
Apparently the suspect ship has now been stopped and boarded by the Danish navy.
https://bsky.app/profile/projecteurope.bsky.social/post/3lbemzvitz22j
Ship trackers report it set sail from Ust-Luga in Russia, with a reported destination of Port Said in Egypt. Lots of chatter that the ship's Captain is Russian, but no hard evidence for that yet
/
Yeah, right... A volcano here and there, but anchors? And 2 of them? You might believe in the coincidences but I don't.
Certainly more than Schroeder...
Leaving politics aside, what is the answer to this tactic? Redundancy over redundancy? New Elon constellation for carriers? Should we expect less cockiness from DTAG and the like?
70% of underwater cable accidents are 'anchor cut', and they are happening about 1-2 or more times per month worldwide.
What about three
https://subtelforum.com/vietnam-internet-disruptions-as-three-submarine-cables-fail/
I've traced the chatter to this record from Russian port.
I might be wrong here but "Pilot" is not captain, it's the local guy who helps captain to navigate the port or waters or whatnot.
People seem to not realize how many ships are there at any given moment and think cable cuts are testing the boundaries of probability theory.
That's my understanding of a 'pilot' in shipping terms too: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maritime_pilot
And you'd expect a Russian to 'pilot' a ship out of Russian waters because it's a job that requires local knowledge.
How many in Europe before 2022?
https://x.com/erikkannike/status/1858916930142245372
Who knows, no one has paid attention, and finding anything specific right now is impossible because of all the white noise about recent event in search engines. Before it got politized it was a simple engineering task. It takes only 1-2 weeks to fix these. Worldwide statistics are 1-2 avg., sometimes more, cable cuts per month.
Yeah the 'pilot' guy probably left the ship long before the incident. We'll see.
Let's do maths: https://mathb.in/80217
Answer: Approximately a 1 in 36 million chance—a probability of about 2.7 × 10^(–8) for three breaks in one day.
I'm losing brain cells when I see Poisson without any reasoning for lambda value.
To many comments .... I am just here to see who did it. Can someone confirm ?
So far it is Chinese ship
https://defence24.com/armed-forces/danish-navy-stopped-a-chinese-ship-suspected-of-damaging-undersea-cables
https://gcaptain.com/details-of-baltic-sea-cable-incident-remain-murky-as-danish-navy-shadows-chinese-vessel/
looking forward for danish update i guess
Which was in russian ownership less than month ago.
I haven't seen any evidence of that.
Try clicking the URL, it's all there.
3. Using the Poisson Distribution:
Because cable breaks are rare and occur independently, we can model the number of cable breaks per day as a Poisson distribution with rate ( \lambda = 0.00548 ).
The probability of observing ( k ) events in a Poisson distribution is:
[ P(k; \lambda) = \frac{e^{-\lambda} \lambda^k}{k!} ]
We need to find ( P(3; 0.00548) ).
4. Calculating the Probability:
Now compute:
[ P(3; 0.00548) = \frac{0.99452 \times 164.566 \times 10^{-9}}{6} ]
Simplifying:
[ P(3; 0.00548) = \frac{163.664178 \times 10^{-9}}{6} \approx 27.277363 \times 10^{-9} ]
[ P(3; 0.00548) \approx 0.0000000273 ]
5. Interpreting the Result:
**Answer: Approximately a 1 in 36 million chance—a probability of about 2.7 × 10^(–8) for three breaks in one day.
Try clicking the URL, it's all there.
1. Average Daily Cable Breaks Globally:
2. Estimating Cable Breaks in the Baltic Sea:
3. Using the Poisson Distribution:
Because cable breaks are rare and occur independently, we can model the number of cable breaks per day as a Poisson distribution with rate ( \lambda = 0.00548 ).
The probability of observing ( k ) events in a Poisson distribution is:
[ P(k; \lambda) = \frac{e^{-\lambda} \lambda^k}{k!} ]
We need to find ( P(3; 0.00548) ).
4. Calculating the Probability:
Now compute:
[ P(3; 0.00548) = \frac{0.99452 \times 164.566 \times 10^{-9}}{6} ]
Simplifying:
[ P(3; 0.00548) = \frac{163.664178 \times 10^{-9}}{6} \approx 27.277363 \times 10^{-9} ]
[ P(3; 0.00548) \approx 0.0000000273 ]
5. Interpreting the Result:
**Answer: Approximately a 1 in 36 million chance—a probability of about 2.7 × 10^(–8) for three breaks in one day.
This
is a usual AI bullsh*t. My eyes bleed now. Unrelated events + "rough estimate" AI numbers = "evidence".
Sorry that facts do that to you
The investigation is being led by Sweden, so I don’t think either Denmark or Norway, who are assisting, will say anything.
Other ships are also being investigated, and there is a separate Finnish investigation as well.
I think it will be a few days before Sweden reveals anything.
I'm so done.
/ignore - because I'm pleased that already before your amok run the thread had multiple posts directly relating to this thread's TOPIC. So, no comment and /ignore you.
@Arkas how long is the first ban usually?
I need to calculate if I wanna say my next joke or not.
No one is going to ban you for a joke. Just make sure it isn't racist please