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Let's Encrypt is almost at 200K certs, lets do a betting game
https://letsencrypt.org/stats/
They're now at 182K. They got their first 100K within 7 days after public beta.
Let's do a betting game. Winner gets internet fame. Because of the holidays, I think they'll hit 200K around december 27/28.
Comments
Dec 30/31 would be my bet.
Wow, over 50% of the domains are .net
Suprisingly they are. I wonder why that would be. It seems to me that .com should be larger.
.com owners prefer to pay for their DV/OV/EV certs? That could just be my perception though.
CloudFlare could also be something that's discouraging people from getting these certs.
January 1?
25/26 Dec 2015
I'm with you OP.
December 27/28.
december 26th, around noon ;-)
Hm, where'd you see that? According to https://plot.ly/~letsencrypt/20/certificates-by-tld/, .net is only 8.06% (even less than .de) while .com is 22.7%.
I'm going with December 25th between 4pm and midnight UTC.
Dec 31
Can we also bet on when they will start introducing "premium" plans?
Eh, what would premium plan possibly do? You can already get free certificates, revoke for free at any time, etc. Also keep in mind that it is run by ISRG, which is a "California public benefit corporation", so there's some laws that apply. (And that it's supported by EFF, and also several commercial sponsors who did not sign up to promote a commercial product.)
Yeah, as poster above me says, please elaborate on that?
The only thing i can think of is setting higher rate limits. But, they have to do that anyways if they want to lower the certificate validity to a week or less (because automation)
Dec 26 in the morning they'll hit it I guess. I will request another 2 as well, both for .de domains by the way
Obviously I was trying to be funny. Maybe I should state that for the non logical users in this forum. I'm Sorry.
I bet it will happen after 1st of January. Sysadmins are busy enjoying their Christmas presents
Sysadmins don't get any Christmas presents.
I bet they'll achieve it around 25th-27th.
An also .com owners already had a certificate.
.net 8.6%
.com 22.7%
Not relevant, as they do not sell any product for money currently and have no physical assets relevant to the key generation (except a hardware RNG and key store, worth maybe 100EUR combined) they can - fully legal and without anyone having anything to complain - move all operations from the almost-non-profit (it is NOT a non profit!) to any corp, anywhere they want, and do anything with it at any time.
@William well, it was a sidenote, but that's a good point about the physical assets; although I think it is still relevant. They have approximately $3 million in cash from corporate sponsorships, throwing that away before they have a chance to spend it seems pretty silly. But of course you're right, it's not the most important thing, e.g. the board having diverse set of members who aren't going to want to do something stupid like move to corporate entity is more relevant.
Edit: also it IS non profit in the sense that it is tax-exempt under 501(c)(3) (meaning there are exemption requirements -- https://www.irs.gov/Charities-&-Non-Profits/Charitable-Organizations/Exemption-Requirements-Section-501(c)(3)-Organizations); that's the usual definition in the US. California mutual benefit corporation is a bit different (and does not satisfy 501(c)(3) requirements), but ISRG is a California public benefit corporation. But anyway this is a silly discussion.
Edit2: also I imagine there would be some difficulties in transferring the root certificate to a new entity.
25'th
BTW what is the logic of the people who bet on 30th / 31st? It doesn't appear to be slowing down over the weekends; and you'd need it to fall from 7K/day to 1K/day for the next seven days to be correct... perhaps you have some inside information that we don't?
OVH just became a platinum sponsor, so you may see them making an offering soon which will really propel things.
27/28 Dec
27th AEST heh
Let's Encrypt is working perfectly for me so far. Swapped out my certificates that had between four months and 1.5 yrs left, and set up a cron job for auto renewal. (for renewing: this and this may be helpful).
The per-domain rate limit is annoying though.
Core router is down... we'll need you to come in and fix it... Merry Christmas.
December 26 and they're at 195.55K certs. My guess might be to late...