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Intel stock plummeted 10% today and read how it came to this point.
yongsiklee
Member, Patron Provider
Intel used to dominate the U.S. chip industry. Now it’s struggling to stay relevant:
Intel vs amd vs tsmc in 5 years
- After reading the article, which company among the three will be biggest in market cap.45 votes
- Intel13.33%
- Amd42.22%
- Tsmc44.44%
Comments
TSMC is a fab-for-hire to all chip manufacturers. Without their cutting-edge processes and skilled labor force, AMD and NVIDIA wouldn't be where they are today. The old saying, "its better to sell shovels during a gold rush than it is to go looking for gold". So TSMC is the most valuable in terms of others relying on their technology to make theirs.
Now In terms of design.. AMD is able to compete without all of the corporate arrogance Intel had that led them to keep their head in the sand and think they were going to rain supreme forever. They also didn't adapt to newer EUV lithography methods like TSMC did.
Early adoption of high NA is a key element of Intel's ambition to regain technological leadership in the semiconductor industry. By contrast, the company was slow to adopt 'regular' EUV lithography, starting EUV-enabled mass production in September 2023, roughly four years behind Samsung and TSMC
Yea this is the big thing. They thought they were an unstoppable giant. Although I really don't think Intel will stop making chips and trying to innovate like a lot of people predict. I do think, eventually, Intel will catch backup to TSMC and Samaung and even in the scenario they don't I don't think the US government will let Intel stop making chips. The US government wants companies, preferably American, to make high performance chips in the US and the US government has shown that they are willing to spend lots of money to make that happen.
The article didn't really go into the shit between China and US government. There's a push for production to be in the US for high technology and keep China out. So when shit goes down, having mfg in the US will be a huge money maker, at least for profit margins.
In other words, if China pushes for war or keeps escalating their hacks on US technology, Intel wins and those other ones take significant drops in revenues. Intel can't really say that plainly in investor statements.
TSMC was one of the largest contract winners of the "chips" program the US gov just funded. They are building a several billion dollar facility in AZ.
Intel started investing to be competitive again by 2030. As an investor it makes Intel seem more attractive than the others since it's at a low point now with lots of potential upside in the years ahead. I'm buying Intel stonk to hold long term based on this, wouldn't be surprised to see it be a 10 bagger by 2030
Risky now but I will be a contrarian and start putting a few $$ into Intel at this point and increase/decrease the number according to their endeavor process. US gvmt is behind this.
My only concern with TSMC is less than moral behaviour from a certain neighbour.
They spend billions maintain their lead, constantly needing to protect their findings and lead from theft. Theft being alot cheaper than R&D and very attractive to certain states.
Mate, I hope you are wrong. Only hyperinflation or the removal of significant chip supply (e.g TSMC) supply could make that true (e.g war with China). And I really hope, as much as sometimes I dislike the actions of the Chinese state that it does not come to war.
An exceptional (but possible) ROI from Intel over the next 5 years would be in my books a share price of $90-100 $USD, not $360/share ($USD).
Not investment advice.
Yeah war would be an unfortunate reason for Intel to boom. I was thinking more along the lines with the AI gold rush and investments in future tech. Intel for example just recently finished installing the next generation wafer fab machine from ASML, the first High-NA lithography set to go into production for their next gen chips next year. They'll be the only ones with High-NA, while competitors like AMD/Samsung are focused on getting to 1nm tech on Low-NA before going for High-NA tech. To me this is the same situation Intel/AMD we're in over the last 15 years = one company sticks on their old tech and continues optimizing their old tech while the other company invests in New tech and pushes ahead with it to become dominant in a 5-10 year outlook. So by 2030 I suspect Intel will be king again, and expectedly reflected in share price.
The High-NA tech sounds cool, I've read a few articles on it and it reminds me of advancements made in 3d nand storage improvements, but for wafers to produce cpus... Cool tech for the future. At least Intel is making the investments
Time to buy stocks at intel. They are humongous, to big to fail. Especially when gun fabrication peeks due to wars.